“LAME DUCK”, it’s what people are calling Mr. Trump. A President losing a mid-term election or President not getting nominated for re-election is usually called that. Traditionally, Midterm elections are seen as a balance-seeking maneuvers by moderate voters who are exhausted by friction into two ideologies. Hence, incumbent loses few of the seats most of the times. Mr. Trump losing majority in both the houses is something that happens rarely. The flip in Senate was somewhat surprising for many, including me. It was even more shocking to see traditional red states voting for Democrats. We have got democrat Senators/ Governors in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Maine & Iowa for the first time in many decades. These states may or may not elect Democrats even in 2028, but at least these results point that US citizens have expressed their discontent on Mr. Trump’s presidency. But how this result will play out for Trump, his near and dear ones and most importantly for the World?
Trump put himself on the voting ballot. Due to anti-incumbency, it is expected that the ruling party will lose some of the seats in both the houses. Mr. President tried to change the outcome by announcing a $ 5,000 in bank accounts for each adult American if he wins among other things. It looks like he is getting some ideas from the Indian politicians. But we are fortunate that American voters did not follow their Indian counterparts. President’s acts were counterintuitive to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) dream that Trump has been selling. He promised to cut on the government’s expenses but took enormous expenses through “The Big Fat Beautiful Bill”. He promised to refrain from “Endless wars” but dove into one with Iran by getting influenced by personal agenda of Bibi Netyanhu. He promised to reduce the cost of living for ordinary Americans but indirectly increased it by announcing draconian reciprocal tariffs and blockade in Strait of Hormuz.
Such events have led to severe supply chain disruptions; it is necessary to have a stable and consistent politician at helm. Rising inflation and geo-political uncertainties are making ordinary citizen’s daily life very much difficult – they showed up on rising grocery receipts and gas prices. One sadder thing is that even in these times, we are seeing record growth rate figures being reported by many countries. Politicians like Trump are thumping this as a result of their “so called good policies”. But the bigger question is why the benefit is not getting felt by a common citizen.
Such discontent got reflected in the split verdict by American voters i.e. in legislative and executive arms of the government. As we know when US sneezes, whole world catches a flu. Trump has also made his intentions clear by effectively being “Mr Veto”. So, I am inclined towards a thought that such situation would increase the instability that we are already living in. Both houses will pass some bill but the President would surely veto it down. That being said he enjoys some of the emergency powers can be used in the time of national emergency. I just fear how far he will utilize those. Democrats need to keep Mr. President under constant pressure. That pressure may be only thing which might bring some rationale into his policies. I fear this deadlock may increase the policy volatility rather than decreasing it.
Democrats must be formulating how to pressurize Mr. President. The Easiest way to do the same is not by threatening his impeachment. Impeachment requiring two-thirds votes in Senate might prove to be nearly impossible for Democrats to achieve on their own. Hence Democrats are expected to focus on congressional trials and putting pressure on government through budgets. Trump, his family and personal businesses have benefitted enormously in previous years. Their wealth has skyrocketed riding on various favors in many foreign transactions. Be it Trump’s daughter and son-in-law’s ambitions to forcefully build a resort in Albania or a hugely beneficial deal with Pakistan in the crypto space with World Liberty Financials having involving both of his sons. Not to forget various real estate deals in many countries. I infer; his wealth is the only thing that Mr. Trump loves more than his life.
American voters showed their presence of mind by cutting some of Trump’s legislative power. But, in my opinion democrats should not get into an euphoria just looking at this result. Democratic Party is still without any promising leader. The party is also leaning more and more leftwards. This image might repel the decisive floating voters. Democratic party leaders have to set aside their egos and act together in these remaining 2 years. If not then a Democrat President in 2028 might be a difficult thing.
As Democrats prepare to weaponize the wrongdoings, real casualty is also the Republican Party. President Trump is not a career politician. He is most probably into this for the economic benefits. Trump will not be able to contest the next election, but this grand old party has to survive way beyond Trump era. Also, Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio are the front runners for the republican ticket in next election. Secretary Rubio made a very convincing case through his speech from Acropolis in Athens. I urge everyone to please watch that speech here. It really may be thought as possible steps before primaries. They also need to decide their further steps carefully. They need to achieve the dual objective of being in the good books of Mr. President so that their current position does not come into jeopardy while maintaining a public perception of not getting associated with Mr. President. Very difficult but necessary balance of acts.
Also, Trump’s unilateral powers have not only affected the internal affairs but rather US’s international partners. Rampant raids and detentions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (i.e. ICE) affected immigrants as well as few permanent residents and citizens. High H1B visa cost at $ 100,000 along with lower foreign student intake in universities will surely affect the STEM workforce (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics). Latter decision may seem beneficial for US’s younger population but the immediate effects are expected to be worse. All this was sufficiently enough to reduce any leader’s approval ratings. Trump himself made it worse by demanding the Nobel peace prize as if he is the “Prince charming” and that medal is waiting like his Cinderella.
US voters punishing such unpredictable governance through mid-term results may come as a sigh of relief for middle power countries like India. Canada might be the happiest among all. It may finally be the time when so called “Tariff war” will take some backseat. Even though he enjoys emergency powers, internal pressure might do some work to deter some stupid doings. It turned out to be rather beneficial for India that the US-India Bilateral Trade Agreement is taking its sweet time to come into fruition. Any deal which puts India not among some of the most beneficial nations will be a bad deal. India has been a reliable ally for USA and Mr. President needs to acknowledge this. India diversified its oil sources after 2019 sanctions on Iran, it is buying more and more defense equipment and crude from American suppliers, Indian-Americans were some of the major supporters of Mr. Trump in 2016 & 2020 elections. Also, Indian corporates like Reliance are refining heavy and sour Venezuelan oil and also committed substantial capital on American soil. Also not to forget investments by Essar group and JSW. I think India should get its fair share for standing with the US. I think spineless flattery like Pakistan should not be treated as a precondition to be in good books of any country.
This result may seem straight forward and beneficial from above but hides very far-reaching impacts and complications within. We should analyze them rationally and while keeping in mind the general well-being of all citizens of the world. USA is still a superpower in this world. China is appearing to be close but will take a substantial time to achieve the current status that US enjoys. Europe though being wealthy and prosperous has its limitations. But we can be happy that there is at least some chance that this phenomenon called Mr. Donald J Trump finally be contained partially. This is just me and my optimism speaking its heart. Sudden attacks on Iran or few executive orders before year end may nullify everything we said above. This may not be the ultimate “Liberation Day” for the world but US voters might have started it. We never know……..
